Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(471 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,195.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,195.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(16 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,845$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,136.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,136.5\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,919$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(372 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,886.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,886.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $526$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $232,664$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,305.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,305.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,340$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,273.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,691$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,770,165$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,757,657.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,757,657.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $103,776$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,671.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,249,928$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $274,219$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275,822.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(275,822.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $38,458$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,084.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(37,084.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $234,574$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $37,113$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,927.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,927.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,395$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(446 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,299.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,299.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,747$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $183,189$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,506.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(174,506.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,530$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,278.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,278.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,751$ on 2020-05-30