Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(471 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,195.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,195.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(16 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-30

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,845$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,136.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,136.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,919$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(372 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,886.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,886.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $526$ on 2020-05-30

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,664$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,305.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,305.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,340$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,273.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,691$ on 2020-05-30

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,770,165$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,757,657.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,757,657.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103,776$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,671.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,249,928$ on 2020-05-30

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $274,219$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275,822.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(275,822.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38,458$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,084.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(37,084.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $234,574$ on 2020-05-30

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,113$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,927.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,927.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,395$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(446 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,299.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,299.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,747$ on 2020-05-30

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,189$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,506.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(174,506.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,530$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,278.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,278.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,751$ on 2020-05-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 97%
Andorra recovered 96%
Taiwan* recovered 96%
Austria recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 94%
Australia recovered 90%
Estonia recovered 87%
Japan recovered 87%
Germany recovered 87%
Slovakia recovered 87%
Niger recovered 86%
Cuba recovered 83%
Denmark recovered 81%
Israel recovered 80%
Malta recovered 76%
Lithuania recovered 65%
Turkey recovered 61%
Georgia recovered 60%
Italy recovered 60%
Czechia recovered 56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 50%
Chad recovered 44%
San Marino recovered 43%
Serbia recovered 42%
Hungary recovered 42%
Romania recovered 37%
Singapore recovered 35%
Morocco recovered 35%
Jamaica recovered 33%
Saudi Arabia recovered 16%
Bulgaria recovered 14%
France recovered 7%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(513 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,458.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,458.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.2}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(105.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-30

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,016$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,854.0}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,854.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(27 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(107.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91$ on 2020-05-30

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $764$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(210 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{753.6}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(753.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(16.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-30

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $442$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(126 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-30

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14$ on 2020-05-30